Monday, May 9, 2011

中共政策研究室:领导左右摇摆是为了稳住左右两派势力/博讯独家

(博讯北京时间2011年5月09日 首发 - 支持此文作者/记者)
     博讯记者吴天娇北京报道,无论是现任领导核心胡锦涛,还是等着上位的皇储习近平,常常会有一些关于他们的或“左”或“右”的消息与新闻释放出来,各派人士就这些新闻对领导人进行了各自不同的解读,如何解读他们?谁的解读更权威?如何看这个问题?
   
     5月6日,记者在参加政府的一个招待会时,对这个问题有了一个初步的认识。午宴中少有的碰上了一位名片上写着国务院政策研究室的刘姓研究员,本人就这个问题请教了他。尤其对习近平一会儿要求不提毛泽东思想,一会儿亲自到韶山,一会儿放话上台就收拾重庆和北京的残局,一会儿却又亲自到重庆去慰问薄熙来,这位政策研究室的研究员开始是笑而不语,后来等到大家都纷纷聊其它的话题而不再注意我们事,他对记者说出了其中的奥秘。 (博讯 boxun.com)
   
    他说,习近平现在和当初胡锦涛上台时一样,都会交叉释放出不同的意见,其中部分互相矛盾。例如胡上台初释放了很多政治体制改革的思想,但同时又说要学习北朝鲜,要求回归毛泽东思想。习近平现在也一样,忽左忽右。别说你们看不懂,就是我们有时也糊里糊涂。
   
    怎么看待这样的事,他们说的都是假话?这位中共头号政策研究机构的研究员说,这倒未必,真话假话其实不重要,他们之所以要释放出来,主要有两个目的:一是试探风向,探测官意与民意;二是把左右两派都稳住,让他们各自都对自己抱一定的希望。
   
    说起第二点,他说,就拿习近平来说吧,他左起来比谁都左,这个时候,党内的左派与网上的愤青就都对他很有信心,热切希望他接班,他到韶山去瞻仰毛泽东故居,甚至把毛左们都弄激动了一阵子。而同样是这个习近平,却在多个场合,通过秘书班子,释放出开明的信息,尤其最近接连传出习近平对北京高压政策不满,认为“没事找事”,有人在为18大接班制造“麻烦”。他这些思想在北京早就流露出来,而且已经很广了。因为这些不知道真假的消息,给党内改革派与右派们留下了希望。
   
    他说,中国关心政局的各派,就是喜欢揣摩领导意思,领导也就投其所好,你喜欢什么,我就给你什么,但不仅仅让你高兴,让你的敌人也有所希望。他说,真正研究中国政策的,一定要认识这种诡异的情形,不能让自己陷入解读领导的境况。
   
    在问到这些领导人到底想什么的,以及上台后会怎么做的时候,他说,那就是我说的第一点,说得好听是顺应民意,说得不好听,就是投机分子。现任领导人向左还是向右,倒退回去还是继续改革,端视利益集团的内部制衡能力,以及民意的威力。
   
    他还说起一事,都说胡锦涛2008年后急速转左,这真是冤枉他了。其实,奥运会前包围火炬什么的,胡锦涛当时还在内部会议上说,一定要大事化小,小事化了。不要太招摇。言下之意,就是不要大张旗鼓地挑衅国际社会。当时驻海外使领馆也接到了这个通知。可是民众激动起来了,更糟糕的是全球的爱国华人与留学生们激动起来了,胡锦涛一看,如果再不行动,我就是五四时候的卖国贼了啊。所以,才出现2008年后政策向左摆动的情况。这还真不是胡锦涛主观为之,说得好听,他是“顺应民意”。
   
    他说,中国老百姓的民意,在很大程度上影响中共中央政策,从这方面来说,他们的政策研究室这是在收集与分析民意而已。不过他也强调,中国的老百姓还不太懂得这个道理,他们更多的把希望寄托在领袖身上。

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