Tuesday, May 3, 2011

吴国光:民变引发政治变革 不要害怕现政权倒台

    “纪念胡耀邦赵紫阳基金会”于2011年4月30日在美国费城举行了《辛亥革命百年纪念胡耀邦赵紫阳研讨会》。本集是吴国光(原人民日报评论部编辑、主任编辑和中共中央政治体制研讨小组研究员,现任加拿大维多利亚大学教授)
    吴国光教授演讲指出:“民变压力到一定程度,引发政治变革”。
   
    中国变革有无希望?有无希望从上而下的变革?温家宝、习近平有希望吗?怎么看待薄熙来?有人说薄熙来一只眼睛盯着常委,另一只眼睛盯着其它的东西(解读:万一共产党不行了,他直接争取大众的支持)
    温家宝、薄熙来等近期表现,是精英裂变的信号。
    民变后一般出现什么情况?镇压是当权者对民变的本能的反应。民变到一定程度,但当局内的野心家、投机者会开始分裂。
    民变引发政治变革,如果共产党下台,谁能取代它?对这个问题,吴国光教授认为,精英的;裂变、跳船对变革后会起很重要的作用。
   
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